Global slowdown could dampen Macau growth
August 22, 2011
Fears of a global slowdown have spread to China, where at least one gaming analyst warns growth rates could be cut in half and then some.
“While not our base case, if EU/US goes into a recession and China GDP drops to 7.9%, Macau's growth may fall from YTD run-rate of 45% to 10-20%,” wrote Deutsche Bank gaming analyst Karen Tang, in a note quoted last week by Business Insider.“ We disagree with the consensus view that Macau is immune to a recession.”
Tang cited evidence that growth rates in other segments of the market that correlate to VIP gamblers are beginning to slow, noting that orders for luxury German cars rose 22 percent in July, down from 45 percent in the first half.
The release of the report was followed by a rare bad day for Macau gaming stocks, which posted daily declines of 5% to 11% on Friday the 19th.
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